A clinical and echocardiographic score for assigning risk of major events after dobutamine echocardiograms

OBJECTIVES We sought to develop and validate a risk score combining both clinical and dobutamine echocardiographic (DbE) features in 4,890 patients who underwent DbE at three expert laboratories and were followed for death or myocardial infarction for up to five years. BACKGROUND In contrast to exercise scores, no score exists to combine clinical, stress, and echocardiographic findings with DbE. METHODS Dobutamine echocardiography was performed for evaluation of known or suspected coronary artery disease in 3,156 patients at two sites in the U.S. After exclusion of patients with incomplete follow-up, 1,456 DbEs were randomly selected to develop a multivariate model for prediction of events. After simplification of each model for clinical use, the models were internally validated in the remaining DbE patients in the same series and externally validated in 1,733 patients in an independent series. RESULTS The following score was derived from regression models in the modeling group (160 events): DbE risk = (age (.) 0.02) + (heart failure + rate-pressure product <15,000) (.) 0.4 + (ischemia + scar) (.) 0.6. The presence of each variable was scored as 1 and its absence scored as 0, except for age (continuous variable). Using cutoff values of 1.2 and 2.6, patients were classified into groups with five-year event-free survivals >95%, 75% to 95%, and <75%. Application of the score in the internal validation group (265 events) gave equivalent results, as did its application in the external validation group (494 events, C index = 0.72). CONCLUSIONS A risk score based on clinical and echocardiographic data may be used to quantify the risk of events in patients undergoing DbE. (C) 2004 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

A simple lifestyle score predicts survival in healthy elderly men

Background. Although improvements in life expectancy have been attributed in part to the adoption or a more prudent lifestyle, few studies have examined the association of lifestyle with survival, using several lifestyle factors simultaneously, in a healthy elderly population. Methods. We investigated the association of health related behaviors with mortality in 7989 men aged 65 to 83 years participating in a population-based trial in Perth, Western Australia, by calculating a lifestyle score as a simple tally of flow many or eight prudent behaviors each individual followed. Results. Invitations to screening produced a corrected response of 70.5%. Out of a possible score of 8.46% of men had a score of less than 5. Within 5 years, a total of 703 men (9%) had died from any cause. The hazard ratio in men with a low lifestyle score was 1.3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-1.5] compared with men with a score of 5 or more. Conclusions. Lifestyle remains an important predictor of mortality even in old age. Survival in older men without a history of cardiovascular disease can potentially be enhanced by promoting a healthy lifestyle. © 2004 Elsevier Inc, All rights reserved.

A Score Test for Zero-Inflation in Correlated Count Data

To account for the preponderance of zero counts and simultaneous correlation of observations, a class of zero-inflated Poisson mixed regression models is applicable for accommodating the within-cluster dependence. In this paper, a score test for zero-inflation is developed for assessing correlated count data with excess zeros. The sampling distribution and the power of the test statistic are evaluated by simulation studies. The results show that the test statistic performs satisfactorily under a wide range of conditions. The test procedure is further illustrated using a data set on recurrent urinary tract infections. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Relationship of body condition score and blood urea and ammonia to pregnancy in Italian Mediterranean buffaloes

The relationship of body condition score ( BCS) and blood urea and ammonia to pregnancy outcome was examined in Italian Mediterranean Buffalo cows mated by AI. The study was conducted on 150 buffaloes at 145 +/- 83 days in milk that were fed a diet comprising 14.8% crude protein, 0.9 milk forage units . kg(-1) dry matter and a non- structural carbohydrate/ crude protein ratio of 2.14. The stage of the oestrous cycle was synchronised by the Ovsynch- TAI programme and blood urea and ammonia levels were assessed on the day of AI. Energy corrected milk ( ECM) production and BCS were recorded bi- weekly. The pregnancy risk was 46.7% and was slightly lower in buffaloes with BCS < 6.0 and BCS > 7.5. There were no significant differences in ECM, urea and ammonia between pregnant and non- pregnant buffaloes. However, pregnancy outcome was higher ( P = 0.02) in buffaloes with blood urea < 6.83 mmol . L-1. The likelihood of pregnancy for buffaloes with low urea blood level was 2.6 greater than for high urea level and exposure to a high urea level lowered the probability of pregnancy by about 0.25. The findings indicate that buffaloes are similar to cattle and increased blood levels of urea are associated with reduced fertility when animals are mated by AI.

Development of a clinical and echocardiographic score for assigning risk of major events after exercise and dobutamine echocardiograms

The prognostic value of exercise (EXE) and dobutamine echocardiograms (DbE) has been well defined in large studies. However, while risk is determined by both clinical and echo features, no simple means of combining these data has been defined. We sought to combine these data into risk scores. Methods. At 3 expert centers, 7650 pts underwent standard EXE (n=5211) and DbE (w2439) for evaluation of known or suspected CAD and were followed for up to 10 years (mean 5-2) for major events (death or myocardial infarction). A subgroup of 2953 EXE and 1025 DbE pts was randomly selected to develop separate multivariate models for prediction of events. After simplication of each model for clinical use, models were validated in the remaining EXE and DbE pts. ResuI1s. The total number of events was 200 in the EXE and 225 in the DbE pts, of which 58 and 99 events occurred in the respective testing groups. The following regression equations gave equivalent results I” the testing and validation groups for both EXE and DbE; DbE = (Age’O.02) + (DM’l .O) + (Low RPP’0.6) + ([CHF+lschemia+Scar]‘O.7) EXE = ([DM+CHF]‘O.S) + O.S(lschemla #) + l.B(Scar#) - (METS0.19) (where each categorical variable scored 1 when present and 0 when absent, Ischemia# = 1 for l-2 VD. 6 for 3 VD; Scar# = 1 for 1-2 VD, 1.7 for 3 VD). The table summarizes the scores and equivalent outcomes for EXE and DbE. Conclusions. Risk scores based on clinical and EXE or DbE results may be used to quantify the risk of events during follow-up.